This analysis was made on the first 17 rounds of the Premier league. Besides this season, the highest changes are identified and presented. Also, the biggest changes which have significant statistical correlation this season is also given. Analysis was made based on the criterium “victory”. It means that all presented data all in relation to victory. If it is positive, it means that when the frequency is higher, victory is more likely to happen (e.g., more shots more possibility for victory), and vice versa (e.g., more lost balls, less possibility for victory). It is interesting to notice that there are not just minor differences in correlations between clubs. Also, it is very indicative to see where the highest changes in correlation with victory happened this season compared to last.

Statistical correlation goes from -1 to +1. -1 means that if something happens, the other variable definitely will not happen, while +1 implies that if something happens, the other analysed variable will definitely happen.

Correlation in season 2022/23

Arsenal’s „shots on target“ have a moderate correlation with victory in opposition to two others clubs which means that they are more precise or have better-prepared situations for shooting on goal or better decision–making in execution. On the other side shots wide have a negative correlation with victory for Arsenal while Liverpool has an almost moderate positive correlation. It might mean that Liverpool achieves victory through the high intensity of attacks; on a higher amount of attacks with shots comes a higher amount of victories. On the other side, very moderate, near-strong negative correlation Manchester City has with blocked shots. Liverpool doesn’t have it negatively at all, but Arsenal does have it, almost weaker than Manchester City.

here is an indicative difference between Arsenal on one side and Liverpool and Manchester City on the other side in crosses. Arsenal has a weak but positive correlation while Arsenal and Manchester City have between weak and moderate and negative correlation.

In all types of challenges, Arsenal has no stronger significant correlation with victory, but Manchester City and Liverpool do. It means that challenges do not influence the victory of Arsenal but do influence negatively the victories of Manchester City and Liverpool. This is very important in understanding the game styles of those three clubs. It is especially noticeable in air challenges where Arsenal has a weak to moderate positive correlation with the victory while Liverpool and especially Manchester City, have a very strong negative correlation.

Ball recoveries and ball interceptions have a positive weak correlation with victory in Arsenal’s case but don’t have for others.

Liverpool has a strong – very strong negative correlation between lost balls and victory. Manchester City has weak negative and Arsenal doesn’t have a significant correlation at all between lost balls and victory. Obviously, Arsenal had a better response on lost balls in the first 17 rounds, while Liverpool has the worst and even generally poor reaction on lost balls when we are analysing the influence on victory.

An interesting difference between Arsenal and Manchester City is that Arsenal has a weak – moderate negative correlation with ball recoveries in the opponent’s half while Manchester City has a moderate positive correlation with victory. So, for Manchester City is, generally, very important to play on the opposite side of the field while Arsenal does not respond positively in such a situation.

All teams have a similar moderate positive correlation between team pressing and victory, with Manchester City having the strongest and Liverpool the weakest.

One more interesting difference between Arsenal and the other two teams is in the opponent’s passes per defensive action. Arsenal doesn’t have a significant correlation while Manchester City and Liverpool do have a moderate – strong positive correlation. It means they actually do more opponent’s passes per defensive action while for Arsenal is irrelevant. Manchester City prefers the right flank while Arsenal is balanced with a little more flavour on both flanks than in the centre.

Liverpool does like the left flank in case they succeed to have a shot in such an action. If not, it might be dangerous for them. Also, they like attacks through the centre.

Neither of the clubs has a positive significant influence on positional attacks with victory. Obviously, they need to use some other mechanisms to win a match. Even more, all clubs have a significant negative correlation with victory, Arsenal is weak, and Manchester City and Liverpool strong negative correlation between positional attacks and victory.

All teams, if they succeed to shoot have a positive significant correlation between counterattacks with victory in which Arsenal have a moderate correlation, the best of all three teams, while Liverpool and finally Manchester City, have a weak positive correlation.

Liverpool like free-kick attacks with shots but doesn’t like throw-ins. For the other two teams, there is no significant correlation.

It seems that there is a positive, weak, but significant correlation between penalties and victories in the Manchester City case.

The biggest difference in correlation from season 2021/22 to 2022/23 with victory

In this paragraph, I’m analysing which segments of the game made the highest change from last season. It is measured in statistical correlation with victory.

Arsenal made the highest increase in significant correlation with victory in fouls (an increase of 0.41) and air challenges (an increase of 0.35). On the other side highest decrease in significant correlation Arsenal made with: ball recoveries in the opponent’s half (-0.78), blocked shots (-0.67), counter-attacks (-0.57), shots wide (-0.56), positional attacks with shots (-0.55) and efficiency for attacks through the left flank, % (-0.54). It seems that Arsenal is more capable to create successful actions from “scratch” this season than last and they have more options in the creation of successful actions which might be more direct this season than the last one. It does not mean necessarily that Arsenal has weaker ball recoveries, blocked shots and other above-stated variables, but because of the change in game style, they are using it less.

For Liverpool highest increase was in the opponent’s passes per defensive action (0.85), counter-attacks (0.45) and free-kick attacks with shots (0.40). The highest decrease in correlation with a victory was in: ball possessions, quantity (-0.66), positional attacks (-0.64) and total actions (-0.56). It is obvious that Liverpool is having decreased in the creation of successful actions from “scratch”, but they perform well if the ball is in the opponents’ possession and combined with counter-attacks as well, but it does not bring more victories to them.

Manchester City had the highest increase in correlation with victory in opponent’s passes per defensive action (0.74), tackles successful (0.52), team pressing (0.48), red cards (0.46) and the team pressing successfully (0.46). On the other side highest decrease with a victory was in attacks – centre (-0.59) and attacks with shots – centre (-0.49). It might be that Manchester City has increased intensity in team pressing this year but it might be over-aggressive which results in red cards, tackles and team pressing itself. Also, they have started to use both sides as well as centres for attacks. Or maybe more precisely, they are much more expected from opponents in attacks in the centre while flanks are more open. If Manchester persists in attacks in the centre, its lower chances for victory. Manchester should spread attacks on both sides as well.

Highest statistically significant correlations among the biggest difference in correlation from season 2021/22 to 2022/23 with victory

An increase in Arsenal with fouls and air challenges has a 0.28 strength of positive correlation which is a weak correlation. The strongest negative correlation is with shots wide (-0.42), Ball recoveries in the opponent’s half (-0.35) and blocked shots (-0.33) which are moderate negative correlations. Arsenal obviously has problems if they lose the ball on the opponent’s side and they should stream to finish each action rather than be interrupted in the field which has a negative influence on victory. It might be that the next step in the development of their game will be in reaction to lost balls and preventing counter-attacks.

For Liverpool highest positive correlation among those with the highest change in correlation with victory is with: the opponent’s passes per defensive action (0.50) – strong/moderate, counter-attacks (0.26) and free-kick attacks with shots (0.21) – weak. The strongest negative correlation among those which decreased significantly is with: ball possessions, quantity (-0.60), and positional attacks (-0.53). Liverpool is not using possession of the ball efficiently, and they achieve their victories more through counterattacks and opponents’ instability after losing the ball in the field. There might be more reasons for this including motivation and intensity of the general performance.

In Manchester City’s case strongest positive correlation with victory, among those correlations which increased most is with: Opponent’s passes per defensive action (0.69), team pressing (0.53) and the team pressing successfully (0.51) which are all strong correlations. The highest negative significant correlation among those which decreased most in Manchester is with: attacks – centre (-0.63) – strong and attacks with shots – centre (-0.37) – moderate. Manchester City is very efficiently using team pressing and this segment is something their opponents should be aware of. On the other side, when Manchester is in possession of the ball, this year, opponents are prepared for their actions through the centre and Manchester should change something or move to flanks as well to create more time for their players to use more available space than if they use just centre.